Dear Gentlemen:

I was reading your latest column in the school paper about your Super Bowl picks and I noticed that you missed a few things. I’m going to look at each of your picks individually and then I’ll explain to you what teams should be considered.    

First, Amadou, I want you to rethink your Philadelphia pick. I’m not sure if you’re treating this like fantasy football or not, but that’s what it looks like. Michael Vick has only played one full season of football in his entire career. He has played a few seasons where he has reached 15 games, so I’ll let that slide just a bit. If he did stay healthy throughout the year, his turnovers would flirt with 20, which is not what I want in a quarterback. LeSean McCoy is the only real problem Philly presents to defenses, and keep an eye on Brent Celek only because their wide receivers can run for miles and open up the middle of the field for him. Jackson and Maclin are listed as 6 feet, but I’m sure they were wearing cleats when they were measured. I’m not going to put my Super Bowl hopes on a pair of receivers that are that short, there is no dynamic to them. They aren’t reliable receivers either. In bubble/cloud zone coverage they will get knocked off their routes early and often. When that happens they’ll get frustrated and quit. They are not good route runners and they are another reason Vick has to wear a Kevlar vest into the huddle. The result: a smart coach in Reid but he doesn’t have the players to execute. Inconsistent at quarterback and unreliable receivers on one side of the ball, and an undersized defense that becomes overmatched quickly, do not pair well. The Eagles don’t make the playoffs on paper if you’re looking at Week One. Four weeks later, the Eagles are 3-2, but it’s in an ugly fashion.  

Jon and Nick, I’ll talk about your picks together. I like the 49ers, don’t be confused, but let’s look at the numbers game. The Niners will win the NFC West, that’s a lock, which means home field advantage in the playoffs. They play their division teams twice, that’s five or six wins right there. Then they play the diminished AFC East, and except for the Patriots, those games are in the W column. The most likely scenario for the NFC Championship game will be a rematch with the G Men traveling west. That means bad news for the Red and Gold. I’ll actually take New York’s defense over the 49er’s. 

You both also picked the Texans. They do have a strong team, but I’m not convinced on just how strong they really are. They play in a powder-puff division that helps pad their stats. I will give them credit for wins over Pittsburgh and Atlanta last year. However, if I had Nick Saban and his Alabama Championship team, I would put them up against seven of the Texans’ opponents from last year, which was their first year in the playoffs. It’s possible, but out of the three teams predicted in this column, the Texans have the smallest chance to earn tickets to New Orleans in February. Five of their next eight games are against playoff-quality teams from last year. Welcome to the where the big boys play, this sandbox might be a bit more rough than that of the AFC South.  

For my prediction, which I hate doing, I have to look at the coach and quarterback combinations. Brady, Big Ben, and Joe Flacco are all great game managers, but because of all of the different looks the Patriots can give pre-snap, I’m leaning that way. However, I am expecting an epic rematch of the AFC championship game from last year. I’m still undecided because I don’t know how Terrell Suggs will factor in, and he will be a factor, he always is. In the NFC I’ll give Atlanta a slight edge over Chicago. Matt Ryan is a smarter quarterback with a better passing game and a better third-down conversion passer rating than Cutler.  

So with a Patriots-Falcons Super Bowl, this one could be interesting. This will essentially be a home game for Atlanta, being so close to New Orleans and also being in a dome. Brady has played better in dome games but that’s because he has played against less than mediocre defenses. This Atlanta defense will be a nightmare for Brady, so expect Bill to have a game plan that keeps Atlanta off the field and gasses the Falcons’ defense. Expect a plan similar to what was executed against Peyton Manning and the Broncos in week five. Both offenses will run no-huddle and a fast offense, but Brady is a better game manager. Tommy will chuck the rock for a few hundred yards but the game will be won by the horses, Ridley and Bolden. 

Pats win 33-28. The defense bends but it won’t break to close the game out.