After a wild night of football last Sunday, we now know what to expect out of the Super Bowl this year. After the Atlanta Falcons dropped 44 points on the Green Bay Packers to win the NFC Championship, and the New England Patriots dismantled the Pittsburgh Steelers to win the AFC Title, we know that Super Bowl 51 will pit the Pats against the Falcons. The Patriots open as three-point favorites over the Falcons, but who is really in the best shape to win this game?
New England and Atlanta are each number two of the game’s top three teams in points per game, so it is easy to conceive that this game would just be an offensive shootout. The major story of this game will be that the front-runners for the NFL MVP Award will be facing off. Matt Ryan of the Falcons was second in the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns while carrying his team to a first round bye in the playoffs. Tom Brady finished with 3,500 yards, 28 TD, and only 2 INT with a 112.2 passer rating, all while missing the first four games of the season. The quarterback play alone will make this game worth the price of admission.
What has been understated for both teams is their defense. With both squads having established their efficiency in scoring, it is easy to neglect that they are both competent on the other side of the ball. Just going off of their most recent games, Atlanta was able to hold one of the hottest teams in the NFL to only 21 points, while New England faced an offense with Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell, who was injured early in the game. While statistically, New England ranked in the top three in points per game and rushing yards per game and Atlanta was towards the bottom in almost every defensive stat, just going by the eye test you can see that they have a defense that can perform when it has to. At the linebacker position, Atlanta has the benefit of Vic Beasley on the roster, one of the best young talents at the position. In addition to Beasley, Brian Poole is a cornerback that New England needs to look out for after racking up six tackles in the NFC Championship game, and 10 in the playoffs so far.
Now with both teams excelling on both sides of the ball, including Atlanta’s over achieving on defense in the playoffs so far, this is the real advantage for New England in this game… coaching. Bill Belichick is easily one of the greatest coaches the game of football has ever seen. Rarely does Bill come into a game unprepared, and that is reflected in the level of success he has had.
Belichick has won 15 division championships with New England, and is going to his seventh Super Bowl (winning four of the previous six). On the other side of the field, Atlanta is led by second-year head coach Dan Quinn. Quinn does have Super Bowl experience as the defensive coordinator of  a Seattle Seahawks team that went to back to back Super Bowls, defeating Denver and then losing to New England. With such an experience mismatch in New England’s favor, it bodes for an overall coaching mismatch, which the Patriots have on most NFL teams.
The one certainty of Super Bowl 51 is that the game will not disappoint. Nobody will run away with this game, and it will probably come down to which star quarterback can make plays in the fourth quarter. Tom Brady has the track record of that, which is why I am picking the Patriots in this game. Look for the Patriots to win by one score, most likely a touchdown.